Take a nightcap drink before reading on … the statistics and trends make for uncomfortable and gloomy reading that probably ask more questions about Lennie and his players attitude in the heat of promotion battles.
The first cracks actually appeared last season during City’s fantastic late surge that eventually resulted in auto-promotion and play-off agony. Some will argue that is unfair on Lennie and City as they were unbeaten in the final 13 games, winning 10 of them, but is it?
Winning 2-0 and cruising in the final 11 minutes at Huddersfield late last season, Lennie removed or “rested” Earnie then and watched in horror, with the rest of us, as moments later, The Terriers gopt a penalty and then went on to grab a 2-2 draw as Cardiff defended and panicked as a result, seemingly a different outfit. City missed auto-promotion by a point, many regard this as the game, and moments, that ultimately meant we missed out.
“Deja vu" and double the heartbreak came in the play-offs but, yet again, critics will point to City being negative in the closing moments and Lennie's late changes that caused our downfall. City were in total control and 2-0 ahead at Stoke’s Britannia Stadium. The home side looked down and out when Lennie again rested Earnie, with 13 minutes remaining, in a tie effectively not at half-time in football terms and City settled again for holding out when they were comfortable. The Potters took up the challenge and grabbed a priceless 89th minute lifeline to take to Ninian Park.
Three days later in the 2nd leg, City, not playing well, were holding on at 0-0 and set for a hometown Millennium Stadium final, the nerves were tense and raw, the anticipation immense. Lennie completed probably the worst hat-trick in Cardiff City history when, with just 2 minutes remaining and City dropping back to hold out, he yet again "rested" Earnie with the job anything but done. Earnie taking a premature hero ovation.
Moments later, his replacement, Andy Campbell, fresh on the pitch, slipped, Stoke crossed and equalised. Totally deflated and without Earnie, City lost out in extra-time with barely a whimper … to another late, late goal, this time as they seemed to be occupied with holding out for penalties.
Lennie and City crashed out in extra-time and were consigned to another year in Division Two. Those moments, bad luck or not, decided our fate and were both pivotal and entirely avoidable.
That all seemed to be forgotten this season, as, although rarely inspiring, City flew into November. The first 17 matches played saw City keep clean sheets in half of their games, only concede 12 goals with just 5 coming in the second half. A warning sign was perhaps conceding 90th minute goals as Lennie and City decided to defend late leads, with changes, at Oldham and Plymouth but they seemed to be blips. Besides, we could blame the referee, couldn’t we? (Plymouth’s goal at Home Park costing Cardiff 2 points was well after injury time had elapsed, Oldham’s was a foul on Alexander).
During those 17 games, City only lost 2 halves of football - at Wigan where they snatched a fortunate draw, the horrendous, maybe freakish home loss to Northampton, and the passionless display at Blackpool.
Barnsley away, league game no. 18, appears to have hurt City more than we realised at the time. An unexpected defeat, three pathetic copycat goals conceded, City unable to deal with physical opponents giving everything (a trend that has hardly stopped since) and losing the defensive kingpin in Danny Gabbidon and also Gareth Whalley, an organised neat passer. City’s play in those areas has never been as good or effective since.
Quick-fire, arguably fortunate wins, at home to Chesterfield and then away at QPR (despite the final scoreline) with clean sheets followed but since then, The Bluebirds have crumbled big-time, especially during the 2nd half of games.
- 11 goals have been conceded in the last 11 games with just 2 clean sheets.
- 10 of those 11 goals (90%), have come in the second-half of games
- 7 of them have been conceded in the final 20 minutes
- 5 of them have been in the final 10 minutes (that’s half of all goals conceded since December!) during the past 9 league fixtures
- Each of the goals conceded between 80 to 90 minutes have come after City were defending deep for results, rather than going for the win or to seal a victory, and all after Lennie made late changes.
- The 5 goals in the last 10 minutes (2 vs Luton away then Huddersfield away, Oldham and Plymouth at home) in the past 7 weeks have lost Cardiff City a staggering 7 points. We would otherwise be clear in 2nd place today.
The difference between 1st and 2nd half scores are just as astonishing.
Lennie’s Bluebirds have only “lost” twice in the first half all season - ironically to our biggest rivals, home to Crewe and away at Wigan - both times Cardiff fought back to grab results.
By huge contrast however, Cardiff have “lost” 7 of the last 18 second halves of league action, a trend which is getting worse as The Bluebirds have “lost” 5 of the last 11 second halves and 3 of the past 5.
The Bluebirds first half-record of 56 points is the best in the division but while others at the top go onto better 2nd half records, City’s gets worse - if only the 2nd halves of games counted, The Bluebirds would have 44 points, worse than half the teams in Division Two.
It is fair to say that City have scored a few late goals to rescue games themselves (Wigan away, Wycombe, Swindon, Barnsley and Crewe at home readily spring to mind) but with the exception of Wycombe, this has only happened when The Bluebirds have been forced into to saving games that they messed up earlier. Some will argue City won at Colchester late on but those who were there will know we defended deep and hung on for dear life once Earnie netted his miracle 72nd minute winner.
Is this just coincidence, a statistical freak, a run of bad luck (as many still like to believe) or does it run deeper than that?
www.cardiffcity.com believe it is the combination of players under-performing and not bringing their full experience into play together with a manager who, in the heat of the promotion battle, is adopting a safety first negative approach in the latter stages of games that his squad seem to be unable to achieve for him.
It also seems a terrible waste of the mostly, First Division-type talent, as Lennie’s disposal to see them told to play deep and defensively inviting lesser teams to attack us and get the opportunity to pinch a result. It’s an opportunity they relish.
Chances must be taken to kill off games. We want to see Cardiff City win by playing controlled football to the final whistle. We don’t want to see our club going for results in a negative style. Late substitutions must be for sensible reasons - that’s with the selection of player being brought onto the pitch and taken off and must be done with more than 2 or 3 minutes remaining when there is likely to be problems with the teams reshuffling and adjusting.
It all seems perfectly reasonable and sensible to us - perhaps that’s why we’re not football managers!